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Table of contents
- Do Natural Disasters Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from Croatian Floods
- Stolen Child
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If politicians act within the law, this may be deemed to make them trustworthy. Politicians whose behaviour is subject to public controversy favour this approach because they can defend what they do by emphasizing that their actions are legal. Social norms are culturally constructed by combining informal standards held in the mind and legal standards formally inscribed in statute books.
Norms establish social psychological expectations about how people ought to behave. The norms that ordinary citizens apply to their political representatives can combine standards used in their personal relations and specifically political standards. Violating informal norms can be described as bad behaviour, while violating formal standards is an illegal act Rose and Peiffer , chapter 1. Insofar as they behave badly, it should encourage distrust.
Trust, a word with meanings varying with context Levi and Stoker , is important for political institutions to implement collective decisions Easton If there is a widespread belief that in unforeseen situations politicians will act as beneficially as possible, politicians can expect widespread popular acceptance of their decisions Newton ; Dowding , p.
Trust is particularly important in theories of representative democracy. Citizens give direction to government by casting their vote for the candidate or party that they trust will be most likely to act in accord with their interests and values cf. Miller and Stokes Theories of principal—agent relationships assume that voters, as political principals, can trust the representatives they elect to act in accord with the mandate that voters give them.
Do Natural Disasters Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from Croatian Floods
This article is innovative in developing a theory of how different types of bad behaviour affect political trust and testing it with a specially designed survey questionnaire. It differentiates legal, social and political types of bad behaviour and different types of punishment for each.
To guard against contextual effects confounding generalization, the data come from national sample surveys in Britain, France and Spain, three countries where corruption in the legal sense of bribery is not widespread but where there is evidence of limited trust in democratic representatives Dogan ; Norris The theoretical importance of trust invites the question: What causes individuals to trust representative institutions central to democratic politics?
Many theoretical explanations have been advanced Zmerli and van der Meer They range from social psychological predispositions to trust face-to-face relations and perceptions of the political and economic performance of political institutions to democratic institutions promoting trust Warren Theories tend to focus on political trust; 2 distrust and scepticism are treated as residual categories Mishler and Rose Breaking three different types of standards—laws, moral social norms or a political mandate—can increase distrust. In addition, the more severe the punishment deemed appropriate for breaking a standard, the greater the increase in distrust.
Our first hypothesis calls attention to three different types of standards that, if broken, can increase distrust. By including social and political as well as legal standards, it allows for a broader range of influences than an exclusive focus on legal violations, such as taking a bribe. It also leaves open to empirical investigation whether the effect of each standard is independent of the others, whether they form a single underlying attitude, or whether some standards have a significant effect on trust while others do not cf.
Seyd H1: The more people see politicians as breaking legal, social or political standards, the more likely they are to distrust representative institutions. Lawyers are not the only social scientists relying on laws as the major criterion for discriminating between good and bad behaviour. Many social science definitions of corruption instance violations of laws against bribery as a prime example.
The theory and practice of public administration focus attention on the adoption of laws and bureaucratic regulations that will promote behaviour by officeholders that complies with laws and regulations see e.
Rose-Ackerman and Soreide Deciding what statutes define as legal and illegal is a responsibility of politicians. Where anti-corruption laws affect their own interests, such as financing the cost of political campaigning, politicians can include loopholes that effectively allow them to accept money in ways that are legal but may be inconsistent with social norms. National practices vary in the extent to which politicians are subject to special jurisdictions, as has been the case in Britain when Parliament acts as the judge of the behaviour of errant MPs Hine and Peele or have immunity from prosecution while in office Wigley Social norms set standards of behaviour that are appropriate and those that are not.
Instead of being set out in black-and-white legal statutes, they are in the minds of individuals, comprising cultural values and beliefs relevant to social and political roles cf. Welch In a democratic political culture, for example, norms emphasize that citizens ought to vote when an election is held and that elected politicians ought to represent the views of their voters.
The behaviour of individuals in parliament and government reflects not only formal rules but also informal norms March and Olsen ; North By definition, a democratic political system requires politicians to act in keeping with their role as popularly elected representatives. Insofar as these standards are widely shared in the population, they reflect non-partisan rather than partisan values, for example, not making ethnic or racist slurs about fellow citizens.
When deciding policies, politicians are expected to respect the mandate that they receive from their voters cf. Politicians are also subject to norms about personal behaviour that is inappropriate because it brings their public office into disrepute, such as appearing drunk on television or using unflattering obscenities to describe other politicians, voters or countries cf.
Allen and Birch Informal social and political norms cannot be enforced in a court of law but they can be judged in the court of public opinion. Print, television and social media can hound politicians by publicizing activities that are deemed to violate informal norms, and public opinion polls can act as a quasi-jury rendering a popular verdict about whether the accused has engaged in bad behaviour. If politicians are ashamed by the exposure of behaviour they thought would be kept private, they can resign office voluntarily.
If they are hesitant to do so party leaders can offer an embarrassing colleague a choice between resigning or being sacked Jacquet Legal and normative standards of behaviour can be in conflict, since opinions of citizens about how politicians ought to behave are subjective popular judgments, while decisions about what is illegal are made in the courts. For example, participants in the MeToo movement have publicized politicians behaving in ways that they judge as violating contemporary standards of gender relations.
Even though few politicians have faced court charges for such activities, many who are the object of MeToo complaints have accepted that their behaviour is shameful and apologised or left office. A similar disjunction between legal and informal popular standards was demonstrated when the parliamentary expenses claimed by almost British MPs were leaked. Only a handful of MPs were convicted of making an illegal claim, but most MPs repaid some expenses that met parliamentary standards but that they did not want to defend in public, and some decided not to stand for re-election cf.
Kavanagh and Cowley , p. The punishment appropriate for breaking standards varies in accord with the legal maxim that it should fit the crime.
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The more serious the violation of a standard is, the more severe the punishment should be. Moderate punishments can be assigned to activities that are considered inappropriate for a public officeholder but not damaging to public policy. Some activities may be tolerated and not result in any punishment. For a politician to be photographed drunk in public does no harm to anyone but himself or herself, while a politician who accepts money for fixing a contract for a constituent who builds an unsafe bridge at a grossly inflated cost violates both legal and social standards.
H2: The more people see the violation of standards as serious, the more likely they are to distrust representative institutions. The punishment of Chris Huhne, a British Cabinet minister, illustrates gradations of seriousness. When his car was caught by a speed camera, his wife pleaded guilty to a speeding offence, an experience common to many Britons and not requiring an apology.
When months later Huhne was indicted for perverting the course of justice by pressuring his wife to lie to the court to avoid losing his motoring licence, he was so shamed that he immediately resigned as a Cabinet minister. After pleading guilty to the charge, he also resigned his seat in Parliament and was given an eight-month prison sentence.
Since bad behaviour by politicians may not be the only stimulus to political distrust, our model controls for the effect of partisanship, which is often a significant source of disagreement in the application of standards. A politician accused of breaking standards may counter-charge by saying the attack is motivated by partisan opponents. This response was employed by President Bill Clinton after being impeached by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and is being used daily by President Donald Trump to defend himself in the court of public opinion.
Our model also controls for socioeconomic status, since sociological theories hypothesize that differences in status influence attitudes towards corruption cf. A British study has found that higher-status people are more likely to be tolerant of the behaviour of politicians and have more trust in political institutions Allen and Birch , p. Inglehart has developed theories about younger and older citizens differing in the social norms that they apply in judging behaviour cf. Schoon and Cheng Gender differences in representation may lead women to be less trusting because fewer women hold elected office.
Since democratic politicians are meant to represent citizens, a national sample survey is an appropriate means for obtaining evidence about how the public perceives the behaviour of their representatives. They were chosen because, by the conventional measure of illegal corruption, the payment of bribes is low in all three countries.
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The French-based survey organisation, Efficience3, conducted telephone interviews with a random stratified sample of Britons between 4 and 22 January ; with French between 11 and 29 December ; and with Spaniards between 11 and 22 December While each country has a distinctive history and political culture relevant to corruption and scandals cf.
Della Porta and Yves , in the years leading up to the survey in all three countries there was substantial media publicity about politicians breaking standards. The British media competed in headlining stories of PBB in their private lives, offering to use their office in exchange for the payment of large fees, and misleading voters by making policy U-turns VanHeerde-Hudson ; Hine and Peele The financial affairs of former President Nicolas Sarkozy and economics minister and later IMF head Christine Lagarde were subject to scrutiny and the sexual affairs of President Francois Hollande were well publicized.
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In Spain a substantial number of cases have been publicized about the illegal payment of money to major politicians in established parties Orriols and Cordero At the time of the survey Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was campaigning for re-election amidst allegations of involvement of corruption and the former economics minister was on trial for corruption and subsequently convicted. To assess trust in representative institutions, a single question was asked: To what extent do you trust political parties?
Replies were coded on an point scale ranging from 0, no trust, to 10, complete trust.
The focus on parties rather than individual politicians provides a common reference point across electoral systems that differ in whether people vote for a party list, an individual candidate or have a combination of choices. It also avoids the risk of contamination because of the popularity or unpopularity of a locally elected MP or national party leader at the time of fieldwork. National respondents differed only in the degree to which they withhold trust from parties that represent them.
The mean British respondent gave the least negative rating, 4. In France the mean score was 3. Only a very small percentage of people are likely to have first-hand experience of a politician behaving badly, while almost everyone is exposed to media stories about politicians that can be used to evaluate them.